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Effective Rates of Negatively Amortized Federal Student Loans

07.08.19 // Finance

Excellent post from my internet friend Dr. Sotirios Keros over at Doctored Money (a great non-profit non-conflicted site on physician finance and student loans), “Your Federal Student Loan Interest Rate May Be Lower Than You Think”:

Federal students loans are unlike other types of debt in that the interest is not capitalized except in certain circumstances. This means that your unpaid interest is not costing you anything. You still owe it, of course, but it represents “interest-free” debt. For example, consider an initial balance of $200,000 at 5%, which now has accumulated unpaid interest of $30,000. Although you owe a total of $230,000, interest only accumulates at $10,000/year. That’s an effective rate of 4.3% (e.g. $10,000/$230,000).

Seriously, check out the post.

Misunderstanding how federal student loan interest works is something I see wrong all the time, especially on the rare occasions I log into any of the physician finance-type Facebook groups. Accrued interest doesn’t hurt you in the short term unless it capitalizes. For example, rushing to make a token interest-only payment does nothing to change the natural history of your loans. That money can be leveraged—for example even just earning trivial interest in an online savings account—before being deployed more effectively.

The common advice from sites that make lots of money from student loan refinancing is that all graduating residents not doing PSLF should refinance. This seems logical because the private company sticker rates are nearly always less than the federal rates. But that’s not necessarily functionally true, because a resident whose loans spent years negatively amortizing likely has a big chunk of uncapitalized interest that’s doing nothing while in the federal program but will capitalize and earn its own interest after refinancing.

It may still be the right choice, but except in certain situations, you can’t just compare rates apples to apples and know you’re saving money.

You have to compare the effective rates!

Time to ditch the ERAS application photo

07.07.19 // Medicine

Pretty damning results about the impact of perceived attractiveness on residency application success. Suffice to say, what came up didn’t exactly make it into the NRMP Program Director’s Survey.

There’s a new paper in Academic Medicine titled “Bias in Radiology Resident Selection: Do We Discriminate Against the Obese and Unattractive?” coming out of Duke. Hint: the rhetorical question posted in an academic paper title is always answered with a yes. But while the study used their own radiology program, I have zero doubt that this is universal and probably substantially worse in other fields.

The idea was to grade mock applications and see who you’d invite:

Reviewers evaluated 5,447 applications (mean: 74 applications per reviewer). United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 scores were the strongest predictor of reviewer rating (B = 0.35 [standard error (SE) = 0.029]). Applicant facial attractiveness strongly predicted rating (attractive versus unattractive, B = 0.30 [SE = 0.056]; neutral versus unattractive, B = 0.13 [SE = 0.028]). Less influential but still significant predictors included race/ethnicity (B = 0.25 [SE = 0.059]), preclinical class rank (B = 0.25 [SE = 0.040]), clinical clerkship grades (B = 0.23 [SE = 0.034]), Alpha Omega Alpha membership (B = 0.21 [SE = 0.032]), and obesity (versus not obese) (B = -0.14 [SE = 0.024]).

The breakdown:

  • Facially attractive and nonobese applicants had a 24% chance of getting an interview
  • Less attractive, nonobese applicants had a 12% chance
  • Obese and unattractive had a 10% chance

At the end of the day, the top three factors for selecting candidates were Step 1 > Race > Facial attractiveness. And being both skinny and attractive literally doubled your chances.

Awkward.

While programs will always eventually meet their applicants and may always “like” applicants who are easy on the eyes, I don’t think any residency (except derm kidding not kidding) actively wants to screen their applicants by appearance.

Is there really any legitimate justification for having access to an ERAS photo in the first place prior to selecting interview candidates? I don’t need to know what you look like.

In the meantime, this study just further confirms the advice I’ve given before: you want your ERAS photo to be good.

Review: The Physician Philosopher’s Guide to Personal Finance

07.05.19 // Finance, Reviews

Back in May, I had the chance to sit down with The Physician Philosopher’s Guide to Personal Finance: The 20% of Personal Finance Doctors Need to Know to Get 80% of the Results.

The Pareto approach is a good conceit and is most of what people need. Real personal finance for most people is two things: simple and behavioral. Save a significant amount of your income by living on less than you earn and then do something really boring with it. Then, stay the course no matter what.

Add in bits about how important it is to buy own-occupation disability insurance from a reputable agent (like these folks, who I recommend) and term (not whole) life insurance, and that’s the meat of the book.

My main beef, unsurprisingly, is the chapters dedicated to student loans. One, there are some factual inaccuracies (e.g. about eligibility criteria for the PAYE program, the fraction of physician jobs that qualify for PSLF, the common misconception that losing a partial financial hardship in IBR or PAYE boots you out of IDR and into the standard plan [it doesn’t, the payments just cap at that amount]), and the notion that all doctors should leave REPAYE after training and switch to PAYE in order to minimize payments [it depends!].

Two, the Pareto principle applies well to most people’s retirement finances but less well to nitty-gritty loan details, especially once you get into PSLF-territory. For the former, there is no evidence that a complicated portfolio outperforms a simple one when it comes to your investment accounts. As author Rick Ferri recently advised on the White Coat Investor podcast:

Regarding your portfolio: make it simple, make it automated, and just let it do its thing. Don’t touch it. That’s the best financial advice I can give. Simplicity, automation, hibernation.

But, there can be a big difference with small details when it comes to loans, which can easily change result in swings of tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars. I see what should be simple mistakes cost thousands constantly. Technicalities are the lifeblood of the system, but I do agree with TPP’s overall thrust though. Luckily, there’s a free book that knocks that particular topic out of the park.

Overall Jimmy is a solid writer and the book is readable and reasonably concise. The first editions of my books had small errors too (okay, I’m sure they all still do—I’m a very fallible human). The beauty of self-publishing is that Jimmy has probably already fixed the errata I found.

It’s a solid book for students, residents, and early career physicians. Just please supplement for loan management.

If things seem a little quiet around here…

06.20.19 // Miscellany

…it’s because we have two adorable kids now.

(Photo by @whatlbsees)

Updated Student Loan books

05.27.19 // Finance, Writing

Nice, productive holiday weekend. I also got around to making some minor revisions and 2019 updates to Medical Student Loans and Dealing with Student Loans, both of which you can always download for free right here. Yes, these beloved best-in-class books are completely free, because student loan debt is crippling generations of Americans, and that outweighs every other consideration.

If you already have a copy, you can still drop your email on the download page and get this most recent edition in your inbox. (And of course you’re always welcome unsubscribe immediately.)

While I would recommend reading one of the two books to literally anybody with a student loan from current college students to seasoned physicians, I strongly recommend any graduating students to take a few hours this month and get your financial house in order.

This is literally the perfect time.

Updated Guide to Fourth Year

05.26.19 // Medicine, Writing

I’ve just updated my guide to being a senior medical student, Fourth Year & The Match. It remains awesome and free as well as being up-to-date for 2019-2020.

Even if you’ve downloaded the old version, you can still receive the new one by dropping your email address here.

 

Get your free book download (ebook and PDF) of Fourth Year & The Match.

 

I have yet to actually start that planned infrequent/sporadic newsletter, and even if I had, I have no interest in cluttering your inbox. But if you just want the freebie, no sweat: just click the friendly unsubscribe link in the download email.

Neverending oil and water optics of corporate for-profits and healthcare

05.23.19 // Medicine

Mednax, Inc.’s CEO Roger Medel on their Q1 2019 Earnings Call:

Looking across our service lines. Volumes increased modestly in most of our women and children specialties. In neonatology, the underlying trend of births at the hospitals where we provide services remained negative, but our volumes increased based on rate of admission into the neonatal intensive car unit and length of stay.

Thankfully, despite birth rate decreases at our hospital, either the babies were coincidentally sicker or we managed to squeeze more kids into unnecessary NICU admissions and longer stays, so we were still able to grow our profits.

 

Explanations for the 2018/2019 Official Step 3 Practice Questions

05.21.19 // Medicine

Update: The November 2019 update didn’t make any changes.

There was a practice material update for the official free Step 3 materials back in November 2018.

The previous set, which I explained here, was revised in November 2017.

Most of the questions are the same with the same order, but there were a few changes, mostly to fix some outdated questions. Questions 7, 8, and 133 were replaced. Questions 55 and 56 were swapped, and the stem for 56 was replaced to give you a chance to see a patient note-based question.

You can find my thoughts on preparing for Step 3 here. In short, I think the free materials and UWorld should be enough for most folks. If you want books recs, they’re in that post. If you need another question source, I haven’t tried any of them, but you can get 10% off BoardVitals if you’re interested by using code BW10.

As for this free practice exam, Blocks 1 and 2 are “Foundations of Independent Practice” (FIP). These should take up to 1 hour each. Blocks 3 and 4 are “Advanced Clinical Medicine” (ACM). These should take up to 45 minutes each. Total practice time should be no more than 3:30 if taking under test-day conditions.

(more…)

Core Exam Predictors

05.09.19 // Radiology

For those radiology residents agonizing over the coming Core Exam in June, there is a new article in JACR that discusses Core Exam predictors for success.

One takeaway? It doesn’t matter what you use to study.

Doctor jobs at “nonprofit” 501(c)(3) hospitals don’t all qualify for PSLF

05.03.19 // Finance, Medicine

Depending on where your searches take you or which books and articles you read, you may come across some questionable insight when it comes to PSLF eligibility for doctors. In short, people often argue that because approximately 70% of all hospitals in the United States are nonprofit hospitals, that a similar fraction of jobs at those hospitals qualifies for loan forgiveness. This is very logical, but it is unfortunately not true.

Now to be clear, this is often used as an argument for why residents should remain in a federal repayment plan like REPAYE instead of private refinancing, for which I wholeheartedly agree. In most cases, residents will get as good if not a better rate staying in REPAYE than they could get with a private company, all while enjoying the benefits, protections, and flexibility of the government plans while giving you the chance to achieve tax-free loan forgiveness via PSLF–depending on what job you take after finishing training. You really never know until you know. Most of you reading probably didn’t even apply for the same residency you’d have guessed when you applied to medical school, so why pretend you know exactly where you’ll be working years in the future?

That post-residency job bit is key though because the magic of tax-free loan forgiveness via PSLF requires a few things: qualifying loans paid for using a qualifying repayment plan while working at a qualifying institution.

The counterintuitive issue here is that it does not actually matter what you do for your job or even where you do it, it only matters who pays you. Outside of academia, county hospitals, and the government (including the VA and active duty military hospitals), relatively few “nonprofit hospitals” directly employ their docs. In some states like Texas and California, none at all.

It’s common knowledge that many specialties like radiology, pathology, and emergency medicine are nearly always a contracted private practice group that provides services. Specialists are a relatively uncommon direct hire at most non-profits. But even many hospitalists are actually employed by a separate physician group. So the question in many cases isn’t “is the hospital a non-profit?” It’s: is the physician group also a non-profit?

To give you an example: the very famous healthcare organization Kaiser Permanente runs a lot of 501(c)(3) hospitals. Many people who work at these places would definitely qualify for PSLF. However, the physicians who work for Kaiser are not employed by Kaiser Permanente itself or any of its network nonprofit hospitals. They are employed by various for-profit Permanente Medical Groups. It doesn’t matter if they work at a nonprofit; it matters who pays the bills. Whoever appears at the top of your W2 is who counts.

Sad but true. While the law was intended to encourage people to pursue careers in public service, the nature of how it was written dictates that it is only the details that matter, not the substance.

This is not to say that there are no qualifying nonprofit hospital jobs out there outside of the usual academic/safety net/government axis (of course there are) but rather that working at a nonprofit hospital doesn’t necessarily mean you are working for that hospital. It’s not the same kind of guarantee that working at an academic/university institution typically is, and even some academic hospitals are “privademics” that still silo off most of their doctors.

If you are relying on or planning for PSLF, then eligibility will be an important consideration when choosing your first job or two as an attending. In this case, you had better make sure you know exactly who your real employer would be, not just where you’d be working.

To repeat: if your hospitalist gig means you’re actually employed by a hospital-associated provider group, it’s the group that needs to be a 501(c)(3).

It doesn’t matter what hospital you work at if the hospital doesn’t employ you. It matters that your direct employer is a 501(c)(3) organization that treats you as a full-time employee.

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