Much more than US students, IMGs have a much harder to time figuring out a satisfying answer to the “what are my chances?” game. If you haven’t already read it, I’d strongly recommend reading the “Charting Outcomes in the Match for International Medical Graduates” available at http://www.nrmp.org/match-data/main-residency-match-data/.
For an example of IMG board score considerations:
Overall, matched U.S. IMGs had mean USMLE Step 1 scores of 224.5 (s.d. = 17.0) and matched non-U.S. IMGs had mean USMLE Step 1 scores of 233.8 (s.d. = 17.1), both well above the 2016 minimum passing score of 192.
Overall, matched U.S. IMGs had mean USMLE Step 2 CK scores of 232.6 (s.d. = 15.0) and matched non-U.S. IMGs had mean USMLE Step 2 CK scores of 238.8 (s.d. = 15.6), both well above the 2016 minimum passing score of 209.
This tells you a couple of important things right off the bat:
- Being a US citizen makes a big difference for an IMG. Needing a visa or having your English proficiency called into question requires a bump in your Step scores.
- Successful IMGs have higher scores than US medical graduates, but as you can see, not by as much as you might guess.
That being said, averages can be misleading. The average IMG is typically applying to less competitive fields on the whole, so within many specialties, the requirements will be substantially higher.
IMGs will doubly benefit from an “in” or personal connection at a particular program. For better or worse, IMGs have historically been funneled into high-need fields like family medicine and psychiatry. They also make up a disproportionate fraction of residents at less competitive community programs.
Note that there are some exceptions to the need to complete a residency in the states in order to practice in America. For example, radiology has an IMG alternative pathway, which is four years of fellowship at a US institution after completing residency training in a foreign country. While this is functionally equivalent to a radiology residency in duration, the competitiveness is different, as you are applying for generally less-competitive fellowships and not residency spots. See https://www.theabr.org/ic-img-dr.
Ultimately, no one online (definitely not me, and not even most residency consultants, I’d venture) can likely give you a great answer for your particular circumstances. Chances are your school and former classmates know the track record and what their luck has been in recent years. That’s probably your best bet.
With new medical schools opening while residency spots staying flat, competition is such that more and more programs aren’t even reading international applications except on a case by case basis for exceptional (hello research) applicants.
Broad application strategies and backup plans are a must.