From Verdad’s “Priced for Perfection“:
The future is too uncertain and unpredictable to make high-certainty bets. Yet today’s market—and today’s largest tech companies—are taking one of the largest bets in the history of economics on the future of a new technology. One does not need to be a bear on the technology itself—we are power users and love AI—to identify that this moment in market history is likely to be characterized by over-investment, over-spending, excessive valuations, and inevitable disappointment as an uncertain future surprises a consensus narrative that is too specific and too confident relative to the pace of change.
Predictions are hard, narratives a bit easier. It will be interesting to look back at all the bold predictions and hand-wringing in 2, 5, 10 years and see who is eating claim chowder.